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October Feeder Cattle opened unchanged, rallied to the session high at 354.70 and then collapsed. It broke down to the low at 344.90 then crept higher to settle near the low at 345.80. The early rally to the high pushed past resistance at the declining 8-DMA now at 344.425 and the nearby key level at 344.55 but was unable to sustain the push. Resistance proved too much for Feeders and it fell apart as people started to ask questions about what Secretary Rollins was going to say about the screwworm and the potential opening of the border to receive cattle from Mexico. I don’t know if that held any weight but no one could figure out why the market was breaking down and were fishing for reasons for the breakdown. To me the potential for an opening of the border for Mexican cattle is far down the road. The screwworm caseload continues to grow in Mexico and an opening the border will raise more questions than answers as to why we closed the border in the first place. Price also stalled a tick above the Thursday high creating a Tweezer Top formation. The breakdown took price below the Wednesday low and was the fourth day below the 21-DMA sending some technical traders to the sidelines as they liquidated positions, in my opinion as expectations grew, we could potentially move to the next major moving average support level at the rising 50-DMA now at 341.65. We have finally seen a good-sized pullback in the market after making a new all-time high. This creates fear of a major market top but also is said to be necessary in bull markets for a major liquidation event to occur in order for the market to be able to sustain future rallies. The cash market has been steadfast and is only 4 handles off its all-time high set on Monday. I am being told producers are ignoring futures and getting cattle bought at still ever higher prices across weight classes. The battle continues. We’ll see!... A breakdown from support could see price test support at the rising 50-DMA. Support then comes in at 341.05. If settlement holds, price could test resistance at the September 10^th low and then move towards resistance at 350.20.

The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 363.08 as of 09/11/2025. 

October Live Cattle opened lower and rallied to the high at 233.825. The rally took price past resistance at 232.75 and stopped at the declining 8-DMA now at 233.80. It also failed to top the Thursday high at 234.10. The inability to keep on trucking turned price lower and it broke down hard, trading to the low  at 228.80, before creeping higher to settle near the low at 229.975. The breakdown took price to a new low for the week, surpassing the September 10^th low at 229.00. The recovery at the end of the session took price back above the low but it couldn’t get above resistance at 230.425, keeping the pressure on bulls as we wait for Monday. The price action took price close to the rising 50-DMA now at 228.35 and bulls have to hope any challenge on Monday is met with a strong rebound in price. The packers won the week in the cash market, and we likely we see another drop in the average price for the week. The cutout has fallen from the recent highs but still ended the week above 400.00. The load counts have been strong at these levels and they will eventually have to fill these orders, leading maybe to an increase in slaughter levels and forcing them to buy more cattle. Now, we have to see how much damage this breakdown in the cash market did to the producer mindset and whether they can get price to move higher going forward and right the ship or will the packer be able to keep the pressure on price. With the increase in the load counts on this break in the cutout, the packer, in my opinion will have to be more aggressive on the slaughter front and the question is do they have enough cattle under their control to slaughter enough cattle without paying up for the cattle? They certainly didn’t show any need to increase slaughter this week, however, as slaughter was below analyst expectations for this week. We’ll see!... A failure from the Friday low could see price test support at the rising 50-DMA. Support then comes in at 226.60. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 230.425. Resistance then comes in at 232.75.

Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 0.75 to 400.04 and select decreased 1.51 to 378.44. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 21.60 and the load count was 128.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 95,000, which is below last week’s 118,000 and last year’s 119,989. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 7,000, which is above last week’s 6,000 and below last year’s 17,945. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 561,000, which is above last week’s 487,000 and below last year’s 623,990.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states:  Thus far for Friday, negotiated cash trade was light on moderate demand in the Southern Plains. Compared to last week in the Southern Plains live purchases traded 2.00 lower at 240.00. Trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all other feeding regions. The latest established live market in Nebraska was on Thursday at 240.00 with dressed purchases on Wednesday at 375.00. The last established live market in the Western Cornbelt was Wednesday at mostly 240.00. The last established dressed market was last week at 383.00.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 232.00 – 245.00 and from 373.00 – 382.00 on a dressed basis (so far).

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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