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“The Soybean Oil Collapse, “El Niño Neutral” & Trading Grains/Soft Commodities on Weather”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter

Scott Mathews, Editor

• Friday Evening - Weekend Report - May 16-18, 2025

Above are the headlines of some recent WeatherWealth issues. Feel free to download a complimentary past issue from April 26th:

To Download This Free Issue  >>>>>   PLEASE   CLICK   HERE

The free issue (depicted above) contained a leading story about the soybean oil market, along with two other main stories: one about grains and the other (a video) about sugar.

What you will find in the complimentary newsletter sample from three weeks ago is best described as follows: 

• A)   Why I felt that soybean oil, out of all the grains would be the leader. As of this writing, soybean oil prices have soared 10% while other grains such as corn lag on ideal Midwest corn planting weather.  

• B)   Other than some concerns with dryness in southern Australia and record heat in parts of China, most global wheat and corn areas are seeing beneficial weather. This is typical during an “El Niño neutral” year. We had a short (bearish) trade recommendation in wheat some 30¢-50¢ higher than this, on our forecast in late March that the drought would ease for Plains and Russian wheat. The market has been a bit oversold for now and given some wheat streak mosaic in the Plains and a heavy short position.

• C)   An 11 minute+ Video about “El Niño neutral” and global sugar production.

• D)   Why we are potentially bearish coffee futures longer term, barring a Brazil frost or drought later this year.

Graphic Image Source Information - Editor's note: Except for the image from the May 10th issue of WeatherWealth, newsletter headline artwork shown in this article was created via the AI image program by DALL-E 4, and is the property of BestWeather, inc. The May 10th issue's image is provided from barchart.com and described as “Beautiful green grass field with a tree and a desert with dead earth and dry grass by Alones via Shutterstock” and the images in the insert from the April 5, 2025 newsletter are duly cited as sourced from NOAA and Stormvistawxmodels.com (used with permission).

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews and the BestWeather Team

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.